AI football predictions: how they work

Football predictions from our own neural network. The probability of each market and a 1-10 confidence in hundreds of competitions. How it works, how to read them and what it cannot see.

Before every match, our neural network works out the probability of each market: who wins, how many goals there will be, corners, cards and more. Then it picks one prediction and gives it a confidence from 1 to 10. It covers hundreds of competitions around the world.

What it learns from. It is trained on many seasons of matches already played. It looks at each team's advanced statistics, home and away form, head-to-head meetings and similar matches. It learns goals, corners, cards and shots together.

How it decides. It is an ensemble of models with a Transformer architecture that decide together. It works out a probability for each market and picks one option as its prediction.

When it publishes. Up to three days ahead and always before kick-off. From kick-off nothing changes. Everything stays in the record as published.

What it cannot see. A last-minute injury, a line-up full of substitutes or a waterlogged pitch. That is why a prediction is an estimate and not a certainty.

How to read a prediction. The probability tells you how many times out of 100 it should happen. The 1-10 confidence measures how reliable it is, based on how thousands of similar predictions turned out. A 9 or 10 is high confidence.

Markets: result (1X2), double chance, total goals, goals for each team, both teams to score, first half, corners, cards, shots, Asian handicap and combinations.

Competitions: LaLiga, the Premier League, Serie A, the Bundesliga, Ligue 1, the Primeira Liga, the Eredivisie, Liga MX, the Liga Profesional Argentina, the Brasileirão and MLS. Also the UEFA Champions League, the Europa League, the Conference League and the Copa Libertadores. And second and third divisions, national cups and youth leagues.

How accurate is the AI? It depends on the market, the competition and the confidence. Results has every prediction with its outcome, misses included. Past results do not guarantee future ones.

Does the AI guarantee getting it right? No. Football has a lot of chance and no model removes it.